The Music Business May Be Coming Back

The music industry's hurting and doing better, all at the same is time. The evidence for this up-is-down statement has just come to light. First, the summer concert season has been, for the most part, abysmal. Second, record sales for 2004 are up. Meanwhile, the iPod revolution is in full effect. Overall, these things seem to bode well for music commercially, and should be a boon for consumers.

I think that the concert slump is a blessing in disguise. A lot of the poor ticket sales can be explained by a simple fact – people are tired of paying too much money to see bad sounding music in crappy outdoor sheds. Some of it is due to fatigue. Eric Clapton and Fleetwood Mac have experienced mediocre sales. Particularly with Clapton, I would like this to be due to a collective awakening of the populace to the utterly boring nature of his music, but I think it's just a matter of no one wanting to fork out so much dough for yet another Slowhand show. It's notable that the tours that have done well are from artists who don't trot out every summer – Prince and Madonna.

Two other notable failures on the summer circuit were Lollapalooza and Norah Jones. The latter surprises me somewhat, because Jones's second record has sold over 3 million copies. Yet she had to downscale from the sheds to smaller (though still roomy) venues. This may be the best sign that people just are getting tired of shed theaters – they are anachronisms, much like the multi-purpose Astroturf ballparks that were built in the ‘70s. Jones's music is intimate, and deserves to be heard in a small hall, where she can still charge top prices.

As for Lollapalooza, I agree with commentators that the lack of acts who might attract a younger audience hurt sales. I also think it was a gross miscalculation to try to make it a two day event, to emulate things like the Glastonbury Festival. There are a myriad of reasons why big festivals are more suited to Europe than America. A festival like Glastonbury is designed to draw an audience from all over the British Isles and the closer mainland European countries. A much different dynamic than trotting a two day fest from city to city.

The slump does not seem to indicate any disinterest in seeing live music. It's just that it costs too much for what you get. It will be interesting to see how promoters respond to this slump.

Because the slump has reversed when it comes to CD sales. Buoyed by Ms. Jones and Usher, among others, sales are up by a significant percentage. These numbers are really affected by one thing – the majors have released some records that people actually want to hear. I'm no big Usher fan, but he's a quality modern R & B audience, and he has managed to knock out a couple knock out singles. Of course it's going to sell. And Jones recorded a fine follow up to her first disc. While her commercial success far outstrips her musical acumen, at this point, she has stayed focused, and the disc shows encouraging signs of long term artistic development, while retaining 100% accessibility.

Furthermore, things are looking up in the rock world. By now, it should be obvious that it's unlikely that rock will ever fully rule the charts again. And nothing's wrong with that. It's nice that rock can maintain a place with rap, country and R & B. Moreover, as aggro and rap-metal fades, there is a void in rock music. This has led to majors trying a bit of everything. Hence, Modest Mouse and Franz Ferdinand actually have gotten a little push, and people are responding.

The other unexpected boost may be coming from a strong synchronicity between television and music. And I'm not talking about Ashlee Simpson. Hip television producers on shows like The O.C. are inviting non-mainstream bands to make an appearance or contribute a tune. This has helped quite a few bands.

This positive trend may be accentuated by the Ipod. Recently, the latest Steven Jobs brainchild was featured on the cover of Newsweek. In five years, everyone will have one. At least one. Being able to carry hours upon hours of music, with great sound quality, in a tiny device – it's like the Walkmen squared or cubed.

Of course, Apple has done a great job of creating a need and then filling it. iTunes is the download companion to the iPod and it's been a raging success. It gives people even more control of the music they listen to. If they only want one track by an artist, they can get it. If you only like five songs on that new CD, just load those five onto the iPod.

As I noted in a previous column, this may hurt the album. It won't kill it, in my opinion, because it's a firmly established musical unit. But it will bring attention back to the single song, which is, quite frankly, where it should be. And this will affect how music is marketed.

Radio will always have a presence, but now there are so many alternative ways to market songs, since you'll just need the Internet to distribute them. The big music companies are finally getting serious in addressing this. Relationships with Itunes are just one way. What is intriguing about this is that the big companies in music, just as in music, have become so focused on the big hit, whereas the Internet is so well designed for much more direct marketing. And music is so fragmented, with so many genres and potential targeting audiences, that this can be so much better exploited.

Smaller companies may be able to this very well. Perhaps someday, Not Lame or Fufkin will develop relationships with iTunes or future competitors. They could send recommendations to customers with sound sample links. Every time a customer downloads a track recommended by Not Lame, Not Lame would get a cut of the download fee. That's just one example. Of course, the system could be gamed, much like independent promoters screw with radio playlists every day. But companies or individuals with integrity would still be there.

Speaking of independent promoters, in a very awkward segueway, they come up a lot in a recent book that I really enjoyed. Semisonic drummer Jacob Slichter used some of his on-line diaries as the basis for his enjoyable account So You Wanna Be A Rock & Roll Star (broadwaybooks.com). Slichter was roommates with Dan Wilson in college (Harvard!), and after Wilson and John Munson saw Trip Shakespeare fall apart, they joined forces with Jake in what became Semisonic.

What Slichter accomplishes in this book is to help a reader see through the eyes of a neophyte (he was 32 when he started, and had never been in a real touring band before) what the whole rock star experience is like. Riding in the van from small club to small club, negotiating with labels, dealing with A & R and promo people. How decisions get made. How everything gets billed to the band. Photo sessions and videos. And, how a band gets a hit, the aftermath of the hit and the inevitable decline, which was precipitous in Semisonic's case.

Slichter's prose is straightforward. He is very effective at cutting through the bullshit. Yet, to his credit, he doesn't make himself out to be perfect. As the band starts getting big around the world, he is honest about how his perspective changed, sometimes making him a bit unrealistic about things.

And one thing that amazes me is just how much damn money is spent to make a record a hit. Ever since song pluggers did their business in the days of vaudeville, folks have greased the wheels to get songs played. Nowadays, however, it takes a million dollars or more to get a hit record. Yes, sometimes a hit happens organically, but that's the exception. I certainly don't think that the changes in how music is sold now will completely eradicate this system. But Slichter doesn't hide his disdain for how things are done. And it is possible that iPods and other developments will at least diminish the influence of bribery on selling music. That's just one reason why I think the future may be brighter. For once.

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